Serbia vs. Germany
Serbia9%▼ 1
Draw14%▲ 1
Germany77%
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Ballon d'Or 2026: Rodri or Lionel Messi to finish higher?
The odds
>99%Rodri
- Rodri>99%▲ 29
- Messi<1%▼ 29
How the odds have moved
Rodri: 74% on Oct 20, >99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 9 PM ETRodri: 71% → >99%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodri | >99% | ▲ 29 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $48K | |
| Messi | <1% | ▼ 29 | 0¢ | 0¢ | $48K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ballon d'Or, Lionel Messi, Rodri
Search ›- Lionel Messi Makes 18th FIFPRO World XI As Kane Misses OutStory byLionel Messi Makes 18th FIFPRO World XI As Kane Misses Out Story by Lionel Messi Makes 18th FIFPRO World XI As Kane Misses Out Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Ethan Evans·Sportswire MiamiThu, November 12, 2026 at 10:49 AM…
- Supercomputer Ignores Lionel Messi Factor to Predict 2026 MLS Cup WinnerOnly three teams in history have successfully defended the MLS Cup. Amanda Langell|Lionel Messi is hoping to lead Inter Miami to another MLS Cup. | Rich Storry/Getty Images With Decision Day done and dusted, the fight for postseason glory…
- Erling Haaland Beats Harry Kane to FIFPRO Men's World 11 Spot - Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe And Lamine Yamal InvolvedStory byErling Haaland Beats Harry Kane to FIFPRO Men's World 11 Spot - Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe And Lamine Yamal Involved Story by Erling Haaland Beats Harry Kane to FIFPRO Men's World 11 Spot - Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe And Lamine…
- Does Lionel Messi Deserve to Win a Historic Third Consecutive MLS MVP Award?If there’s one thing that Lionel Messi knows how to do, it’s win individual awards.Zach Lowy|Lionel Messi is the frontrunner for the MLS MVP award. | Rich Storry/Getty Images After lifting a record eighth Ballon d’Or, Messi departed…
- Lionel Messi a finalist for third straight MLS MVP awardLATEST NEWSMiddle East Doctors in Gaza mourn colleague killed by latest Israeli strike on hospitalLionel Messi a finalist for third straight MLS MVP award MLS revealed its finalists on Thursday for eight individual season-ending awards…
- Harry Kane: Ballon d'Or winner set for Wembley celebration of England recordAnalysis Harry Kane: Ballon d'Or winner set for Wembley celebration of England record England captain Harry Kane set to win record-breaking 126th England cap in Nations League this week; Kane was voted England's greatest in a Sky Sports…
- Rio Ngumoha, 18, Says He Can Win the Ballon d'Or Like KaneStory byRio Ngumoha, 18, Says He Can Win the Ballon d'Or Like Kane Story by Rio Ngumoha, 18, Says He Can Win the Ballon d'Or Like Kane George Howson·Futbol ChronicleWed, November 11, 2026 at 7:17 PM UTC·7 min read
- Report: Lionel Messi played decisive role in Lamine Yamal’s Adidas switch from NikeBarça News Report: Lionel Messi played decisive role in Lamine Yamal’s Adidas switch from Nike Published 1 hour ago on 12/11/2026 By Swapnil Bhopatkar Photo by David Ramos/Getty Images Comment Tweet Adidas did not win the battle for Lamine…
- Why Kevin De Bruyne could unleash best of Jack Grealish at Everton after Lionel Messi comparisonStory byWhy Kevin De Bruyne could unleash best of Jack Grealish at Everton after Lionel Messi comparison Story by Why Kevin De Bruyne could unleash best of Jack Grealish at Everton after Lionel Messi comparison Max Wilkins·Goodison…
- Jarell Quansah backs Liverpool wonderkid Rio Ngumoha to win Ballon d'OrLiverpool FC Posted by Mehdi Gokal November 12th 2026, 18:20 Follow @gokalmehdi (Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images) Former Liverpool defender Jarell Quansah has backed Rio Ngumoha to become a future Ballon d’Or winner, describing…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4SOCCER.us. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4SOCCER.us, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4SOCCER.us index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4SOCCER.us Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions