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Soccer Odds & Match Probabilities
Soccer's moneyline has three outcomes — home, draw, away — which is the first thing that catches out an American bettor. The percentages below have the bookmaker's margin taken out, so they add up to 100 and show what the market really thinks.
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Reading a soccer line
- Three-way (1X2)
- Home win, draw or away win. A draw is a real outcome, not a push — this is the big difference from American sports.
- Decimal price
- 2.50 returns $2.50 for every $1 staked, stake included. Implied chance = 1 ÷ price.
- Draw no bet
- Two outcomes: if it ends level your stake comes back. Shorter price, less risk.
- Double chance
- Backing two of the three outcomes at once.
- Asian handicap
- Removes the draw by giving one side a head start. Quarter lines (−0.25, −0.75) split your stake across two bets.
- Totals
- Over/under a number of goals; 2.5 is the standard line.
- Both teams to score
- Exactly what it says, and popular because it survives a late collapse.
Most books settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time — extra time and penalties do not count unless the market says so. Check your book's rules.
Where the margin goes
Add up 1 ÷ price for all three outcomes and you get more than 1. The excess is the bookmaker's margin. Divide each by the total and you get the market's honest view — which is what the percentages here are.
A typical three-way soccer market carries a bigger margin than a two-way American one, simply because there are three prices to pad.
Club betting trends this season
Records when the club closed as the shortest or longest of the three 1X2 prices; over/under 2.5 goals; both teams to score. This season.
| Club | As favourite | As underdog | Over 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis | 9-5-3 | 6-4-7 | 19/34 | 22/34 |
| Charlotte | 12-4-4 | 3-5-6 | 25/34 | 23/34 |
| Cincinnati | 9-3-4 | 3-7-8 | 23/34 | 24/34 |
| Atlanta | 6-2-6 | 3-4-13 | 23/34 | 22/34 |
| D.C. United | 4-3-2 | 3-9-13 | 21/34 | 20/34 |
| Philadelphia | 12-7-5 | 2-1-7 | 23/34 | 23/34 |
| Orlando | 8-2-1 | 5-5-13 | 26/34 | 23/34 |
| Red Bulls | 6-2-5 | 6-4-11 | 20/34 | 20/34 |
| Vancouver | 19-5-8 | 0-2-0 | 20/34 | 17/34 |
| Salt Lake | 11-2-5 | 2-4-10 | 24/34 | 24/34 |
| Austin | 2-3-2 | 6-7-14 | 24/34 | 24/34 |
| Minnesota | 5-6-5 | 6-5-7 | 23/34 | 25/34 |
| Dallas | 10-5-2 | 6-5-6 | 22/34 | 21/34 |
| Toronto | 4-6-1 | 5-6-12 | 24/34 | 27/34 |
| Houston | 9-5-4 | 5-4-7 | 14/34 | 14/34 |
| Chicago | 12-5-7 | 4-2-4 | 26/34 | 25/34 |
| Nashville | 21-6-2 | 2-2-1 | 19/34 | 15/34 |
| New England | 10-2-2 | 8-2-10 | 24/34 | 21/34 |
| LAFC | 12-9-7 | 0-2-4 | 18/34 | 18/34 |
| Miami | 13-9-4 | 3-3-2 | 26/34 | 26/34 |
| Portland | 7-4-3 | 6-3-11 | 24/34 | 25/34 |
| Columbus | 10-3-10 | 4-2-5 | 24/34 | 23/34 |
| San Diego | 7-6-4 | 2-5-10 | 23/34 | 20/34 |
| Montréal | 1-5-1 | 5-3-19 | 20/34 | 17/34 |
| San Jose | 7-3-5 | 7-7-5 | 20/34 | 23/34 |
Information only. 4Soccer does not take bets and is not a sportsbook. 21+ where legal; rules differ by state. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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